Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 73165.494909 77325.314963 81488.352246 85964.160262 90637.046257 95368.673097 100518.856670
2025-04-27 66977.472243 73379.643999 79969.649163 87250.337882 95058.878445 103172.397760 112230.368848
2025-05-04 62185.490986 70105.763750 78441.574216 87848.871113 98149.855832 109066.206988 121488.900316
2025-05-11 58135.844118 67148.130300 76812.629382 87914.818175 100282.487243 113602.724121 128999.193100
2025-05-18 54939.441589 64822.445140 75595.857356 88164.210083 102374.055518 117891.562553 136066.922374
2025-05-25 52145.032792 62728.353847 74437.705159 88288.620727 104157.036067 121699.802125 142488.796850
2025-06-01 50313.734203 61590.998075 74235.561081 89378.929948 106932.803268 126550.160125 150037.219689
2025-06-08 47977.179938 59730.265758 73078.712891 89255.686626 108218.487453 129629.033179 155512.149119
2025-06-15 46692.713458 59022.967058 73189.642560 90541.232019 111084.274758 134490.863464 163029.378410
2025-06-22 45236.178563 58029.890586 72893.680296 91285.230577 113267.310162 138530.908701 169583.371447
2025-06-29 43550.076050 56680.760063 72103.376936 91376.531402 114625.605615 141569.379933 174945.485221
2025-07-06 41950.993146 55368.603980 71294.907924 91387.826063 115840.191057 144404.599396 180050.088508
2025-07-13 41053.157702 54900.561374 71499.890272 92628.713076 118553.033481 149060.548297 187390.681174
2025-07-20 40182.299861 54429.320782 71672.286859 93809.994011 121187.504997 153633.798973 194666.454409
2025-07-27 39084.590604 53626.171252 71394.983292 94403.749464 123081.881972 157307.670789 200869.220303
2025-08-03 37803.073934 52539.958654 70720.808083 94464.626097 124289.565886 160130.651171 206037.564279
2025-08-10 36690.759984 51631.023591 70233.440178 94726.965791 125722.398870 163215.517598 211527.349644
2025-08-17 35582.627261 50688.217083 69667.719602 94858.385015 126967.332782 166056.338109 216718.475816
2025-08-24 34986.197975 50395.687668 69916.687112 96013.782889 129495.196297 170489.283360 223897.832775
2025-08-31 33868.841950 49373.055181 69187.921791 95883.157514 130370.214848 172853.502637 228508.420316
2025-09-07 33435.009995 49251.012735 69619.796972 97245.378307 133148.580313 177608.826191 236130.238703
2025-09-14 32787.579910 48816.556442 69622.242312 98033.657076 135183.795756 181433.647101 242603.466668
2025-09-21 31892.435637 48015.356837 69114.257157 98130.386865 136310.530162 184103.735898 247626.992169